The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published two new coal reports, in November and December, 2022. Following are brief overviews of those reports:
■ Coal in Net Zero Transitions: Strategies for Rapid, Secure and People-Centred Change
The new IEA special report – Coal in Net Zero Transitions: Strategies for Rapid, Secure and People-Centred Change – was released on November 15. This report, part of the World Energy Outlook series, presents pragmatic, real-world guidance on how policymakers can achieve a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from coal without harming economies or energy security. Among the IEA’s three scenarios in achieving the global net-zero goal and avoiding the most severe impacts of climate change, even the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) indicates that the energy sector alone will require approximately USD $6 trillion in investment by 2050, while the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE) states that investments of USD $9.5 trillion would be required. The transition from coal-fired power generation to clean energy requires immediate and large-scale financing and policies to promote a safe, affordable, and equitable transition, especially in emerging and developing countries.
Coal is the single biggest source of electricity generation worldwide. According to the analysis, the total capacity of coal-fired power plants in operation reached 2,185 gigawatts (GW), and coal‐fired power plants provided 36% of global electricity generation in 2021. Under the NZE Scenario, the use of this coal must be reduced by 90% by mid-century. In a scenario in which current national climate pledges are met on time and in full, output from existing global unabated coal-fired plants falls by about one-third between 2021 and 2030, with 75% of it replaced by solar and wind. To achieve the 1.5°C target, there is no space to build unabated coal-fired power plants. The report also emphasizes that the need for policy promoting people-centred transitions is essential in the move away from unabated coal.
＜Links＞
IEA PR：Supercharging growth of solar and wind is vital but not enough on its own, new IEA report finds, calling for rapid financial mobilisation to drive secure, fair and affordable transitions worldwide（2022年11月15日）
https://www.iea.org/news/achieving-a-swift-reduction-in-global-coal-emissions-is-the-central-challenge-for-reaching-international-climate-targets
Download report from here (Link)
■ Coal 2022
IEA has published an annual coal report since 2018, and Coal 2022 was released on December 16. This report offers a thorough analysis of recent trends in coal demand, supply, trade, costs and prices against a backdrop of rising concern about energy security and geopolitical tensions. In 2022, with an increase in the global demand for coal, global coal use is expected to rise by 1.2% and to a record high for the first time in nine years. The report forecasts that coal demand in emerging Asian economies remains robust, but that the increase in consumption in Europe is only temporary. The overall outlook of the report remains unchanged from last year’s forecast that the global coal demand may reach a new peak in 2022 or 2023, after which it will level off.
Nonetheless, higher coal prices, strong deployment of renewables and energy efficiency, and weakening global economic growth are tempering the increase in overall coal demand this year. Coal used in electricity generation, the largest consuming sector, is expected to grow by just over 2% in 2022. By contrast, coal consumption in industry is expected to decline by over 1%, mainly driven by falling iron and steel production amid the economic crisis.
In power generation, coal consumption is expected to exceed the 2021 amount in 2022, which is mainly driven by robust coal power growth in India and the European Union (EU), despite a decline in the United States. Even with Europe accelerating development of renewables and extending the lifetime of nuclear plants, the growth of wind and solar power was not enough to offset the decline in hydroelectric and nuclear power output. In response to fuel switching, some European countries have increased their use of coal power generation, currently a more price competitive option. Nevertheless, the increased coal consumption in Europe has been largely due to a 10 gigawatts (GW) increase in Germany. Notably, the report forecasts that redoubled efforts to improve energy efficiency and expand renewables will see EU coal generation and demand return to a downward trajectory as early as 2024. It also expects at a global level new renewable generation to cover almost 90% of additional electricity demand through 2025.
<Links>
IEA PR：The world’s coal consumption is set to reach a new high in 2022 as the energy crisis shakes markets（2022年12月16日）
https://www.iea.org/news/the-world-s-coal-consumption-is-set-to-reach-a-new-high-in-2022-as-the-energy-crisis-shakes-markets
Coal 2022のExecutive summary (Link)
Download report from here (Link)
Written/Published by: The International Energy Agency (IEA)
Published: November 15, 2022 / December 16, 2022September 28, 2022