In July 2024, Kiko Network published its report “Pathway to 2030 as seen in trends from OCCTO’s ‘Aggregation of Electricity Supply Plans’ – Without any change, the 2030 power supply mix and reduction targets will not be achieved”.

The Aggregation of Electricity Supply Plans is an annual report by the Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO), compiling the plans for the following ten years submitted by electric utilities nationwide for power plant development and supply of power. Japan Beyond Coal (JBC) has posted news and provided analysis of the reports, which are usually published every year at the end of March. This new report by Kiko Network is not an analysis of power companies’ plans in a single year, but an analysis of ten years of plans from FY2015 to FY2024.

The report tracks trends in installed capacity, electricity production, facility utilization rate, power source composition, and demand forecast and transition of actual electricity demand. Additionally, it also presents forecasts for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from thermal power ten years from now.

As a result of this analysis, looking at the changes in the power supply plans of electric power companies until FY2033, there is no prospect that the composition of energy sources will change significantly in the future, with thermal power expected to account for 60% of Japan’s energy mix even after FY2030. Although renewable energy sources are increasing, the speed in which they’re introduced is not sufficiently accelerating either. If thermal power generation continues to be used as expected, it is predicted that Japan will have significant difficulty in meeting its GHG emissions target for 2030.

The situation surrounding climate change has changed dramatically in this decade, and natural disasters have become increasingly frequent and severe throughout the world. In response, internationally thermal power generation is being reduced and renewable energy is becoming the main source of power generation. This report reveals that the plans of Japanese electric companies are completely inadequate to properly address climate change. To achieve Japan’s net-zero 2050 goal, there is an urgent need to change systems and mechanisms so that electric companies can make the appropriate changes to their plans and make real progress in reducing thermal power generation.

Related info.
Kiko Network: “Pathway to 2030 as seen in trends from OCCTO’s ‘Aggregation of Electricity Supply Plans’ – Without any change, the 2030 power supply mix and reduction targets will not be achieved” （Only available in Japanese）

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