Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent science-based project which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries, released the report “Warming Projections Global Update.” This report analyzes each country’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets (Nationally Determined Contributions; NDCs) toward achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal. It also evaluates climate change-related policies of large GHG emitting countries and regions, including Japan. In this report, CAT points out that Japan’s current GHG reduction targets are inadequate, and more ambitious targets are necessary to be consistent with the 1.5℃ goal.

Japan’s Inadequate Targets

Each country must submit an updated NDC every five years that is more ambitious than its last (Article 4.2 of the Paris Agreement and COP21 Decision 1 paragraphs 23 and 24), and the next NDC submission deadline is coming in February 2025. By that time, countries are required to set new, more ambitious reduction targets for 2035 consistent with the Paris Agreement. To do so, discussions at the joint council under both the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) are undergoing. Japan’s current NDC target is “aiming to reduce its GHG emissions by 46% in FY2030 from its FY2013 levels, setting an ambitious target which is aligned with the long term goal of achieving net-zero by 2050.

According to the CAT’s analysis, Japan’s current NDC would lead to emissions levels of 746–887 MtCO2 e in 2035, well above the 311 MtCO2 e (excl. LULUCF*) necessary to be 1.5°C compatible. In order to be consistent with the Paris Agreement goal, Japan’s targets should be 69% below 2013 levels by 2030, and 81% below 2013 levels by 2035 (including LULUCF; 78% excluding LULUCF).
*LULUCF: GHG emissions from Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry

Global Outlook

CAT’s analysis, released on November 14 during the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) COP29 conference*, evaluates the current policies of several large emitters (China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan, and Australia) and the COP “Troika” countries (the United Arab Emirates as COP28 Presidency, Azerbaijan as COP29 Presidency, and Brazil as COP30 Presidency) and emphasizes that all of these countries’ 1.5°C target could be significantly exceeded with current policies.

*29th session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties

Seven countries named as major emitters were responsible for 60% of global GHG emissions in 2022, and the Troika countries (UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil) have plans to continue extracting fossil fuels. Together, these 10 countries produce a total of 63% of global emissions.

The combined global impact of government action on climate change has flat-lined over the last three years. Despite the increasing impacts and damages caused by climate change, there remains a lack of urgency in reduction measures. Although countries have agreed to urgently strengthen their 2030 targets and align them with the 1.5°C goal, fossil fuel emissions have been increasing throughout 2024. CAT also noted the impact of Trump returning as president of the United States, and expressed concern that if the country’s net zero goal is abandoned and actions by affected countries are set back, it will have an even greater impact on the world’s attempts to avoid a worsening climate crisis.

Recommendations to Strengthen NDC Targets

CAT warns that if countries fail to substantially increase the ambition of their current 2030 targets and action in 2025, limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C will be even more difficult and the long-term temperature increase will breach 1.5°C in the early 2030s. We need to act immediately.

In addition to CAT, numerous international organizations and NGOs are calling for a strengthening of emission reduction targets in NDCs. Prior to COP29, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, stated on October 28 at the release of the 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions Synthesis Report that even if the current NDCs are fully implemented, global emissions in 2030 will only be 2.6% below 2019 levels. Considering the 43% reduction from 2019 levels in 2030 that is required by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CAT warns that all countries, without exception, will suffer enormous human and economic damage if the world continues on its current path.

In Japan, a wide range of domestic organizations have commented and released proposals for the targets in the next NDC. Countries will submit NDCs by February 2025, and all major emitters are required to take concrete measures to achieve their respective net-zero targets. Despite this, the Japanese government has not yet provided specific figures or a roadmap to achieve them. As CAT and civil society have stated, it is necessary for Japan to urgently set ambitious targets in order to advance domestic emission reductions.

Climate Action Tracker（CAT）
RELEASE: As the climate crisis worsens, warming outlook stagnates
BRIEFING: As the climate crisis worsens, the warming outlook stagnates

Reference：Information about global NDCs

NDCs：United Nations, Climate Change: NDC Registry（Link）
European Commission’s PR：COP29: Joint Press Release on 1.5°C-Aligned Ambition in NDCs Toward Net Zero（Link）

Written/Published: Climate Action Tracker (CAT)
Published: November 14, 2024