On February 18, 2025, 7th Strategic Energy Plan, Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, and GX2040 Vision were approved by Japan’s Cabinet.

The new Strategic Energy Plan set targets to maximize the use of renewable energy (40-50%) and nuclear power (20%) to a maximum of 70% of all power sources in FY2040, but also leaves 30-40% for thermal (fossil fuel) power.

The 7th Strategic Energy Plan

Renewable energy
Some people might at first think that the 40-50% renewable energy target is for the year 2030, not 2040. However, this extremely low target has been set for 2040. It seems that the Japanese government is not concerned with the goal adopted at COP28 to triple renewable energy generation capacity worldwide by 2030, and that there is no intention to take the lead in introducing renewable energy.

Nuclear energy
The phrase “reduce dependence on nuclear power as much as possible,” which had been explicitly stated in Japan’s Strategic Energy Plan since the 2011 accident at TEPCO’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, has been removed in the new version. Furthermore, the conditions for rebuilding nuclear power plants have been eased, and the plan clearly calls for a return to nuclear power by promoting the development of “next-generation” nuclear reactors and other measures. However, it is difficult to ensure the complete safety of nuclear power plants in Japan, an earthquake-prone country, and the plan to provide about 20% of electricity from nuclear power plants by FY2040 is completely unrealistic. This means that thermal power is likely to eventually be used in its place, and CO2 emissions will not be reduced.

Coal-fired power
The 7th Strategic Energy Plan does not mention a phase-out of coal-fired power. While acknowledging that the “fading out of inefficient coal-fired thermal power generation” indicated in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan has not progressed, the 7th Plan does not refer to the retirement of inefficient coal-fired thermal power generation, but rather to its continued use and the development of technologies, including co-firing and fuel conversion. It is clear that the government is trying to avoid international pressure by weakening the tone regarding coal-fired power generation, but the reality is that coal will continue to be used in 2040 as it has been until now.

LNG (Fossil gas)
The 7th Plan states the intention to increase LNG-fired thermal power generation as a transition tool, citing the important role that thermal power plays in supplying electricity and as an adjusting capacity to compensate for output fluctuations caused by renewable energy and other energy sources.

The government expects electricity demand to increase to 1.1 trillion kilowatt hours by FY2040. In order to meet demand while achieving decarbonization, the government plans to “aim for a power source mix that is not overly dependent on any particular power source or fuel source” and maintain thermal power at around 30-40%. The lack of a breakdown by fuel type (e.g. coal, gas, oil) makes it difficult to see a path toward retiring power plants and reducing emissions. In addition to preserving coal-fired power plants through introducing co-firing technology, there is concern that measures to reduce power generation will be taken to make it seem like a reduction, such as idling the plants and reducing the amount of power generated

Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures

The Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures presents the greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for the year 2035, which will be submitted to the United Nations as Japan’s National Determined Contributions (NDC). The target approved for 2035 is a 60% reduction compared to 2013 levels (about a 54% reduction from 2019 levels). The Japanese government had postponed the submission of the NDC past the February 10 deadline, citing reasons such as the need to examine the results of public comments.

Opinions that the government’s target was too low came not only from citizens’ public comments*, but also from the government council that was discussing the next target and from companies aiming for decarbonization. Despite this, the government ultimately decided to submit the reduction target to the United Nations as originally proposed by the Cabinet without considering the opinions of the public comments or re-examining the plan.

＊The number of comments submitted were 41,421 for the 7th Strategic Energy Plan (the highest number ever received for the Strategic Energy Plan), 3,211 for the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, and 516 for the GX2040 Vision. The results of the public comments were announced on February 17, one day before the Cabinet decision. On the same day, Reuters reported that over 80% of the public comments on the Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures supported a plan that was more ambitious than the government’s proposed 60% reduction.

Japan’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

GX2040 Vision

The GX2040 Vision is a national strategy that sets the direction for decarbonization and industrial policy in 2040. However, the Vision was drafted by vested interests such as Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) and former general electric utilities. The result is a system in which large amounts of money are funneled to major emitters of greenhouse gases, such as electric utilities and fossil fuel-related industries.

U.S. President Trump has signed an executive order to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, the international framework for combating climate change, and is promoting a return to fossil fuels, but as efforts toward decarbonization accelerate throughout the rest of the world, how will Japan’s targets be evaluated by the international community?

In response to the government’s firm stance, NGOs and others have issued opinions and comments on the Cabinet decision:

Results of public comments (written in Japanese)
・Strategic Energy Plan (エネルギー基本計画案)
・Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (地球温暖化対策計画案)
・GX2040 Vision (GX2040ビジョン案)

Comments and statements from Japan Beyond Coal member organizations:

Renewable Energy Institute>Comment
Japan at an Energy Crossroads: Choosing Competitiveness Through Renewables
On the Cabinet Approval of the Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan
Kiko Network>[Press Release] On the Cabinet Decision on the 7th Strategic Energy Plan, Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures, and GX 2040 Vision: A historic catastrophe that will be passed onto future generations

CAN-Japan>Japan’s new climate and energy targets are a far cry from what’s needed to meet Paris Agreement goals