On November 14, the United Nations released a report finding that climate change action plans submitted by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.
Assessment of National GHG Reduction Targets under the Paris Agreement
UN Climate Change analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted up until 25 September 2023.
The analysis concludes that, if the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels.
Total global GHG emissions taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs are estimated to be around 51.6(48.3–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2030, and published new synthesis report “Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement”.
The analysis concludes that, if the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels.
Total global GHG emissions taking into account implementation of the latest NDCs are estimated to be around 51.6(48.3–54.8) Gt CO2 eq in 2030.
The latest science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5℃ by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.
In order to achieve peaking of emissions before 2030, the report indicates that the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms.
The report shows much more action is needed now to move the world’s emissions trajectory further downward and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), stated “Today’s report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track. This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them.”
Report on Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies
A second UN Climate Change report on “long-term low-emission development strategies,” released on the same day, looked at countries’ plans to transition to net-zero emissions by or around mid-century. The report indicated that these countries’ greenhouse gas emissions could be roughly 63% lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all of the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time. The report notes, however, that many net-zero targets remain uncertain and postpone into the future critical action that needs to take place now.
Related Links
UN Press Release: New Analysis of National Climate Plans: Insufficient Progress Made, COP28 Must Set Stage for Immediate Action（Link）
Report：Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement（Link）
Report：Long-term low-emission development strategies（Link）
Written/Published by: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Published: November 14, 2023